The study was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
According to a new study, climate change estimates are not as accurate as we think. In fact, according to researchers, UN estimates about current climate policies and recent COP26 commitments are more uncertain and catastrophic than how much they will affect global warming.
Said Ida Sognnaes, a senior scientist at the CICERO Climate Research Center in Oslo. "Misdirection of climatic results during COP26 may force countries to believe that they are making good progress, whereas the opposite may be true."
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, is the most diverse. This is because it uses 'prediction' instead of the 'backcasting' approach. In this model, scientists worked forward, working backwards instead of taking the desired target, such as 1.5C, to see which policies need to be implemented, they looked at the effects of recent policies on future temperatures. Modeled
"Our study is a 'prediction'," said Glen Peters, director of research at CICERO. "We model where current policies take us and then see where we go."
Their estimates range from a catastrophic 2.2C to a catastrophic 2.9C above pre-industrial levels, indicating how unpredictable these figures can be.
"If you take the bottom line, it looks like we're really close to meeting the Paris goals," said Glen Peters.
"But it is very likely that the result will be around 3C, in which case stronger policies will be needed."
This estimate is not so far away. UN estimates predict a 2.7C rise in COP26.
Said Ida Sognnaes, a senior scientist at the CICERO Climate Research Center in Oslo. "Misdirection of climatic results during COP26 may force countries to believe that they are making good progress, whereas the opposite may be true."
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, is the most diverse. This is because it uses 'prediction' instead of the 'backcasting' approach. In this model, scientists worked forward, working backwards instead of taking the desired target, such as 1.5C, to see which policies need to be implemented, they looked at the effects of recent policies on future temperatures. Modeled
"Our study is a 'prediction'," said Glen Peters, director of research at CICERO. "We model where current policies take us and then see where we go."
Their estimates range from a catastrophic 2.2C to a catastrophic 2.9C above pre-industrial levels, indicating how unpredictable these figures can be.
"If you take the bottom line, it looks like we're really close to meeting the Paris goals," said Glen Peters.
"But it is very likely that the result will be around 3C, in which case stronger policies will be needed."
This estimate is not so far away. UN estimates predict a 2.7C rise in COP26.
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